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Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich - the relegation scrap analysed

Relegation battle cover graphic

The Premier League title race might have been settled with two games to spare but we are still no closer to knowing who will be relegated with Aston Villa to next season's Championship.

Although it is still mathematically possible for Crystal Palace to go down, there's a three-way scrap for survival between Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich - and only one will make it.

So tight are things between them that each club has held the sacred 17th place within the last fortnight, and currently it is Newcastle who are highest in the standings.

Will they be the club which gets out of trouble by the end of the campaign? Here we weigh up various factors which could determine who keeps their place in the top flight...

Premier League: 17th to 19th place

Position Team Games played Goal difference Points
17 Newcastle 36 -25 33
18 Sunderland 35 -18 32
19 Norwich 35 -26 31

Remaining fixtures

Newcastle - out of the relegation zone at present - have one game less than Sunderland and Norwich from which to pick up points - but is their run-in more favourable?

Newcastle have one game less to play but sit ahead of Sunderland and Norwich in the league table
Image: Newcastle have one game less to play but sit ahead of Sunderland and Norwich in the league table

Rafa Benitez's resurgent face relegated Villa - a side currently on an 11-match losing streak - on Saturday and finish at home to Tottenham. 

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Spurs' title chase is over and with third-top Arsenal at fourth-placed Manchester City this weekend, there is every chance a runners-up spot will be confirmed by the time Mauricio Pochettino's side arrive at St James' Park.

Curiously, Sunderland and Norwich both play beaten FA Cup semi-finalists Watford and Everton in their last two matches.

With Wembley losses effectively ending both clubs' seasons and speculation rife about the future of each of their managers, they look good games, on paper, for the relegation-threatened sides to have.

Everton had failed to win in seven games before beating Bournemouth last time out while Watford have lost six of their last 10 competitive games and each is therefore vulnerable.

Gerard Deulofeu tries to get away from Martin Olsson
Image: Everton play both Norwich and Sunderland before the end of the season, as do Watford

Before those matches, Norwich host Manchester United this Saturday lunchtime before Sunderland are at home to Chelsea.

United desperately need a win to keep their hopes of a top-four place alive and are a much tougher beast than the one Alex Neil's side - who have lost five of their previous seven home games to Manchester United - defeated 2-1 at Old Trafford in December.

Chelsea head to the Stadium of Light after ending the title hopes of rivals Tottenham and have not succumbed on Sunderland's patch since 2000.

Form

Relegation contenders' form

Team Last eight games (most recent last)
Newcastle L D L L W D D W
Sunderland D D D D L W D D
Norwich L L D W W L L L

Despite having a game less to complete, Newcastle can at least take heart from the fact they are in the best form of the three relegation candidates.

They made a slow start after Rafa Benitez replaced Steve McClaren as manager and lost three of the Spaniard's first four games in charge.

Perhaps crucially, the one point they took in that run was in their 1-1 derby draw with Sunderland, when Aleksandar Mitrovic's late goal prevented a defeat which would have left them in big trouble.

More recently, Newcastle are unbeaten in four games and with wins in two of them against Swansea and Crystal Palace, there's a good argument to suggest they are in the ascendancy.

Karl Darlow, Rafa Benitez victory celeb, Newcastle v Crystal Palace, Premier League
Image: Newcastle's form has picked up after a slow start following Rafa Benitez's appointment as manager

While Sunderland have lost only once in their last eight outings - a defeat against champions Leicester -  they have only won once as well, with a 3-0 victory at Norwich.

Indeed, they have taken eight games to collect just one more point than Newcastle have earned in half of that time.

Ominously for Norwich, they have lost three games consecutively and have failed to score in any of their defeats to Palace, Sunderland and Arsenal.

Although wins over West Brom and Newcastle gave them hope, there will be fears at Carrow Road they peaked too early. As their run of nine defeats in 10 games prior to those victories suggests, Norwich find it hard to get out of a slump once they fall into one.

Timm Klose of Norwich City heads the ball to score
Image: Norwich defeated Newcastle and West Brom in back-to-back games but they are their only wins in 16 matches since January 2

Injuries

No side other than Liverpool has as many injuries as Newcastle - Vurnon Anita the latest of seven players in the treatment room - but two of those are goalkeepers - Tim Krul and Rob Elliot - and Karl Darlow has proved to be an able deputy.

Fabricio Coloccini, Massadio Haidara, Daryl Janmaat and Yoan Gouffran are the others out, although the latter two could return at Villa.

Ryan Bennett could come back for Norwich this weekend but they will be without Alex Tettey, Timm Klose and Andre Wisdom.

Sunderland have no major problems in their squad, meaning Sam Allardyce has a full complement of players to choose from against last season's champions.

Sunderland manager Sam Allardyce gestures during the Premier League match with West Bromwich Albion
Image: Sam Allardyce is the only manager among the three in charge of relegation contenders who has no injury worries

Betting

Sunderland are considered the favourites to avoid relegation at 11/10 followed by Newcastle at 11/8, with odds-on favourites for the drop Norwich 9/2 to stay up.

The Canaries are up against odds of 100/30 to boost their survival chances by beating Manchester United on Saturday, while the Black Cats are 9/5 to take three points from Chelsea's visit. Rafael Benitez's Magpies are the only one of the struggling trio expected to win at the weekend, with Sky Bet making them just 8/13 to see off Aston Villa.

Conclusions

All factors considered, it seems as though Norwich look most likely to join Villa in next term's Championship.

Their form has been poor and they perhaps have slightly tougher fixtures than fellow strugglers Sunderland on account of the fact Manchester United still have Champions League football in their sights.

Add in the fact they already sit 19th - two points behind Newcastle and with a slightly worse goal difference - and it is difficult to see a way out for them.

Sunderland will certainly believe they can take points from their final trio of games and rightly so. With their tendency to draw regularly in mind, the question is whether they can take enough.

Lee Cattermole of Sunderland is challenged by Matt Jarvis of Norwich City
Image: Sunderland won 3-0 at Norwich on April 16 but it's their only win in their last eight matches

Nerwcastle's morale has risen off the back of their most recent results and they will feel a win at Villa on Saturday could be decisive.

It would leave Sunderland and Norwich both realistically needing wins from the weekend too and that might be a tall order against two former Premier League champions.

Who do you think will stay up? Let us know using the message boards or by tweeting @SkyFootball.

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