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Pre-season results: Are they an accurate guide to league form?

ose Mourinho the manager of Chelsea looks on prior to kickoff during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, second leg match

Are results in pre-season a guide to form in the coming campaign? We take a look at the past experiences of Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in discussing the importance or otherwise of a good pre-season…

"Pre-season is fake, for good and for bad. If you're very bad, it's fake, and if you're too good, it's fake." Jose Mourinho's reaction to Chelsea's 4-2 defeat to New York Red Bulls revealed how little stock the Blues boss puts in pre-season results. But is he right?

Mourinho could point to a 3-0 defeat to Werder Bremen last summer - a game from which he insisted he "learned nothing"- as evidence of the insignificance of pre-season results. His Chelsea team subsequently embarked upon a 21-game unbeaten run in the season proper.

But what of his Premier League rivals? Can Arsenal take confidence from victory in the Emirates Cup? And was Manchester United's 3-1 defeat of Barcelona an indication of their improvement under Van Gaal? The evidence is mixed...

Mikel Arteta: Arsenal captain raises the Emirates Cup
Image: Mikel Arteta raises the Emirates Cup trophy after Arsenal's win over Wolfsburg

Arsenal

Lifting a trophy in a tournament laid on by your own sponsors in which you play at home and invite the other three teams at your discretion cannot be taken too seriously. However, failing to perform in those conditions might be an indication of problems.

Since the inaugural Emirates Cup in 2007, Arsenal have failed to finish in the top two of the tournament they host on three occasions. There were even boos for the team when denied by New York Red Bulls in 2011 and again when two goals down against Napoli in 2013.

The pre-season is to prepare to be efficient for the Premier League so come back in one month. The real truth starts on August 8th against West Ham.
Arsene Wenger

Although Arsenal have been remarkably consistent in their Premier League finishes throughout this period, the only three times they have lost one of their first two league matches were in these seasons when they struggled at the Emirates Cup.

In contrast, their most successful start during this time was the 2007/08 campaign in which Arsenal won 14 of their first 15 games. That summer they won the Emirates Cup, with victory in the Amsterdam Tournament also adding to the feel-good factor.

Liverpool

The Gunners were actually still five points clear at the top of the Premier League in mid-February of that 2007/08 season before fading badly. Pre-season exertions? That wasn't a concern for the great Liverpool side of the 1980s who knew how to ease their way into it.

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Jordon Ibe scored a screamer for Liverpool against a Malaysia XI (Video: LFCTV)

Liverpool showed that conserving energy and building their way into a season might be a better approach and lost high-profile pre-season games ahead of each of their European Cup winning seasons between 1977 and 1984.

In particular, Bob Paisley's team suffered the ignominy of coming last in the Rotterdam Tournament in 1983 - behind Hamburg, Standard Liege and Feyenoord - before going on to win their fourth European Cup the following May.

Man Utd

At the other end of the spectrum, there has been Manchester United's pre-season form under Louis van Gaal. United have won all of their matches so far this summer, including that stand-out victory over European champions Barcelona in California.

Wayne Rooney of Manchester United celebrates scoring their first goal during the match between Manchester United and Barcelona at Levi's Stadium
Image: Wayne Rooney celebrates scoring Man Utd's first goal against Barcelona

So does this hint at an improvement? Not necessarily, given that they won five or their six games last summer - putting seven past Los Angeles Galaxy and beating Roma, Real Madrid, Valencia and Liverpool. Even their draw with Inter culminated in a penalty shoot-out victory.

United then proceeded to make a miserable start to Premier League life under Van Gaal, losing at home to Swansea before failing to beat Sunderland and Burnley. They were still down in the bottom half of the table late in September following a 5-3 loss at Leicester.

Conclusion

Mourinho is right about the extremes. A superb pre-season doesn't automatically precede success and poor results are not necessarily cause for concern. Even so, neither Van Gaal nor Arsene Wenger will be complaining. There's an old rule. If in doubt, win.

Live International Champions Cup Football

Watch pre-season friendlies live on Sky Sports, with Chelsea facing Barcelona in the International Champions Cup on Sky Sports 1 HD from 12.55am on Wednesday.

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