Tuesday 14 June 2016 20:23, UK
Ronald Koeman has surprised some with his decision to swap Southampton for Everton, but what are the reasons for the move? Adam Bate looks at why the switch might pay off for the Dutch coach…
On the face of it, abandoning Southampton for Everton is a curious move. Koeman - who has signed a three-year deal at Goodison Park - is leaving the team that has just finished sixth - three points shy of a Champions League place - for a side that didn't even trouble the top half of the Premier League table.
There's the money, of course. But Saints supporters point to that table. Everton fans argue their proud history is the clincher. In truth, that history is unlikely to have informed Koeman's decision - at least not in the way that they might think. In fact, it's Everton's lowly status of late that could appeal.
The new-found financial power at Everton with the arrival of Farhad Moshiri, both in terms of the salary that the club can pay Koeman and the transfer spending that's expected to follow, will surely have encouraged the Dutchman that he can take the team up from 11th.
Improvement is what's required to enhance a coach's reputation and Koeman makes no secret of his ambition to manage former club Barcelona. The Catalan club have shown in the past that they're not afraid to gamble on the right man but Koeman must maintain momentum.
Everton offer that opportunity. Despite Romelu Lukaku's likely exit, funds are available and the club will be spending heavily this summer - with an anticipated outlay in excess of £100m. That's a sum that would allow the new man to significantly reshape the squad.
There's talent already present, with a widely-held belief among fans that the players were ultimately undermined rather than aided by Roberto Martinez's tactics. It's useful to have a plan when taking a new job and the scope for improvement at Goodison Park is obvious.
For example, Everton's errors should be straightforward enough to cut out given the propensity to overplay in defensive areas. In the past two seasons, Everton have made more mistakes leading to shots - 67 - than any other side in the Premier League.
In contrast, Koeman's Southampton have conceded just 27 such opportunities in that period - fewer than any other Premier League team to feature in both campaigns. Along with the training ground work of brother Erwin, he knows how to organise.
As a result, Koeman can be confident of making the changes that will see Everton progress quickly. He has not completed four seasons in any of his 10 coaching roles since retiring as a player and is likely to relish the chance to make a swift impact.
Of course, Southampton supporters might argue there is scope to take them forward too. After all, Saints are regarded as a well-run club and have improved their league finish six seasons in a row now. Ostensibly, they are the ones going in the right direction.
However, Koeman knows the Premier League well enough to appreciate the pitfalls. Leicester are the exception that proves the rule and the fact they are cited as evidence of Southampton's potential only emphasises the fact that expectations always escalate.
The odds for both Southampton and Everton to finish in the top four next season are identical - 12/1 with Sky Bet. Some might see that as proof this is not a step forwards. But sometimes a sidestep can be a sidestep away from trouble and onto a more promising path.
And so, a perverse logic applies. Everton's recent struggles are seductive. For taking Southampton to sixth represents no more than consistency. Getting Everton there on the back of a bottom-half finish would be a triumph. Koeman's switch might just be a savvy one.
